The economic policy uncertainty, oil price volatility and economic growth of Vietnam


Authors

  • Ho Thi Lam University of Finance and Marketing
  • Hoang Kieu Bao Trinh University of Finance and Marketing
  • Bui Thi Hong Ngoc University of Finance and Marketing
  • Nguyen Tran Minh Hoai University of Finance and Marketing
  • Pham Thi Nghia University of Finance and Marketing
  • Bui Hoan My University of Finance and Marketing
DOI: https://doi.org/10.57110/jebvn.v4i1.246

Keywords:

Oil price volatility, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of the economic policy uncertainty and oil price volatility on the economic growth of Vietnam. Using data from 1996 to 2021 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag methodology (ARDL), we found that in the short run, the uncertainty of economic policy is a negative impact on economic growth in Vietnam. However, in the long run, this impact becomes positive, when economic agents can adjust production and consumption behavior following policy change. Additionally, this study also presents evidence that increased uncertainty of the oil price is associated with lower economic growth in Vietnam. Furthermore, we provide statistical evidence of the impacts of the unemployment rate, domestic investment, FDI, and government expenditure on the economic growth rate in Vietnam. From the research results, several policy implications are given to promote economic growth in the context of increasing macroeconomic instability

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Published

25-02-2024

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How to Cite

Ho Thi Lam, Hoang Kieu Bao Trinh, Bui Thi Hong Ngoc, Nguyen Tran Minh Hoai, Pham Thi Nghia, & Bui Hoan My. (2024). The economic policy uncertainty, oil price volatility and economic growth of Vietnam. VNU JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS, 4(1), 51. https://doi.org/10.57110/jebvn.v4i1.246

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